Macro
Will China's NBS report 2026 full-year real GDP growth of 4.7% or higher by Jan 30, 2027?
Market Data
Rules
On-chain Language: EnglishThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) publishes a preliminary Q4/full-year 2026 GDP release on its official website (stats.gov.cn) and that release reports the headline full-year 2026 real GDP growth rate as 4.7% or higher (the headline figure rounded to one decimal using standard arithmetic rounding), before January 30, 2027 - 00:00 UTC.
Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market: The qualifying source is the NBS preliminary Q4/full-year 2026 publication posted on stats.gov.cn (either the English press release page or the Chinese‑language release on the same domain). If the NBS reports a growth rate with more than one decimal place, round to one decimal using standard arithmetic rounding (e.g., 4.65 → 4.7). Only figures published after the creation of this market are eligible. If the NBS has not posted the preliminary Q4/full-year 2026 headline full-year growth rate on stats.gov.cn by the cutoff above, this market resolves to No. If NBS explicitly issues a correction on stats.gov.cn replacing an initial headline figure, the corrected figure on stats.gov.cn will be used for resolution.
Source
- National Bureau of Statistics of China — official releases on stats.gov.cn (English press releases: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/)
- National Bureau of Statistics of China — Chinese‑language release pages on www.stats.gov.cn
- If stats.gov.cn is inaccessible, consensus of credible reports from major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, Xinhua) reporting the NBS release (used only as a fallback)