This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) publishes a preliminary Q4/full-year 2026 GDP release on its official website (stats.gov.cn) and that release reports the headline full-year 2026 real GDP growth rate as 4.7% or higher (the headline figure rounded to one decimal using standard arithmetic rounding), before January 30, 2027 - 00:00 UTC.

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market: The qualifying source is the NBS preliminary Q4/full-year 2026 publication posted on stats.gov.cn (either the English press release page or the Chinese‑language release on the same domain). If the NBS reports a growth rate with more than one decimal place, round to one decimal using standard arithmetic rounding (e.g., 4.65 → 4.7). Only figures published after the creation of this market are eligible. If the NBS has not posted the preliminary Q4/full-year 2026 headline full-year growth rate on stats.gov.cn by the cutoff above, this market resolves to No. If NBS explicitly issues a correction on stats.gov.cn replacing an initial headline figure, the corrected figure on stats.gov.cn will be used for resolution.