规则

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump, while serving as President of the United States, orders, directs, or otherwise authorizes U.S. military action that initiates offensive or defensive kinetic or cyber operations against the sovereign territory, military forces, or government of another nation at any time after this market's creation and before January 1, 2027 - 00:00 PST.

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market: “military action” includes airstrikes, missile strikes, naval engagements, ground operations, special forces operations, or cyberattacks conducted by or on behalf of the U.S. military. Routine military exercises, training, intelligence gathering, sanctions, diplomatic actions, or other non-kinetic measures do not qualify. The occurrence of qualifying military action must be confirmed by at least two of the following sources. Only events occurring after the creation/deployment of this market are eligible for resolution.