This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump publicly announces, in an official capacity, that he has reached an “agreement in principle” with Iran to end the ongoing conflict at any time after the creation of this market and before November 2, 2026 - 00:00 UTC.

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market: a “public announcement” by Donald J. Trump means a statement made in an official capacity via one or more of the following channels: an official White House press release or statement on WhiteHouse.gov, an official White House press briefing or transcript, a written joint statement co-signed by U.S. and Iranian officials and released through official channels, or a message posted by a verified presidential social-media account controlled by the Office of the President. The announcement must explicitly state that an “agreement in principle” exists to end the conflict; statements merely announcing talks, intent to negotiate, or outreach do not qualify. Only announcements made after the creation of this market are eligible for resolution.