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Will China land a taikonaut on the Moon before 2030?

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状态最早解决日期
交易进行中
Jul 24, 2026, 8:54 PM
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Yes$0
No$0

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上链语系:英文
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Republic of China conducts a mission after the creation of this market that results in at least one taikonaut disembarking onto and physically touching the lunar surface before January 1, 2030 - 00:00 UTC.

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

• A “taikonaut” is an individual officially designated by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to serve as a crew member on the mission.

• “Land on the Moon” requires a soft landing on the lunar surface by a spacecraft carrying taikonaut(s) and at least one taikonaut exiting the lander and physically touching the lunar surface. A landing without crew egress does not qualify.

• Only missions launched or initiated after the creation of this market are eligible for resolution; events that occurred prior to market creation are ineligible.

• The occurrence of a qualifying landing must be confirmed by at least two of the following: official CNSA or other PRC government announcements; mission telemetry or official mission documentation released by CNSA; or consistent reporting from reputable international news organizations or national space agencies.

来源

• China National Space Administration (CNSA) official announcements and mission releases

• Official PRC government statements

• Mission telemetry or official mission documentation published by CNSA or recognized space agencies

• Consensus reporting from reputable international news organizations and national space agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, NASA, ESA, SpaceNews)

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