This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) holds a strictly greater number of seats in the German Bundestag at any time after the creation of this market and before March 25, 2029 - 00:00 CET.

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market…

• The baseline seat count is the number of seats officially attributed to the AfD in the Bundestag at the exact time this market is created, as recorded on the official Bundestag seat distribution page.

• “Holds a strictly greater number of seats” means the AfD’s total seats in the official Bundestag seat distribution is larger than the baseline. A tie (equal seats) does not qualify as “Yes.”

• Qualifying seat increases include those resulting from federal election results, by-elections/replacements, or formal party membership changes of sitting members, provided the change is reflected in the official Bundestag seat distribution. Changes that occurred before market creation do not qualify.

• Resolution will use the official Bundestag seat distribution and, if needed, the Federal Returning Officer’s official records and a consensus of credible news reports to determine the AfD seat count.