Community · Iran War
Will Iran attack a shipping vessel outside the Strait of Hormuz before September?
市场数据
规则
上链语系：英文This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran (including Iranian state forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or agents/proxies acting at the state's direction) conducts or directs an attack that causes physical damage to, or loss of, a seagoing commercial shipping vessel located outside the geographic limits of the Strait of Hormuz at any time after the creation of this market and before September 1, 2026 - 00:00 UTC.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
For the purposes of this market:
• "Attack" includes missile/rocket strikes, drone strikes, explosive/mine/torpedo attacks, armed boarding with use of force, or cyberattacks that directly cause physical damage or loss to a vessel.
• "Seagoing commercial shipping vessel" means merchant ships (e.g., tankers, bulk carriers, container ships) and excludes warships and naval auxiliaries.
• The incident must be confirmed by at least two independent credible sources (examples: official statements from government or naval authorities, UKMTO/US Fifth Fleet/USCENTCOM alerts, shipowner or insurer statements, AIS/ship-tracking data showing damage/loss, or reporting from reputable international news organizations).
• Only incidents occurring after the creation of this market are eligible for resolution.
来源
- Official statements from Iranian government, IRGC, or Iranian state media
- Official statements or alerts from naval/maritime authorities (e.g., US Fifth Fleet/USCENTCOM, UKMTO)
- Shipowner/operator or insurer statements
- AIS/ship-tracking data (e.g., MarineTraffic, VesselFinder) confirming damage or loss
- Reporting from reputable international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC)