规则

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Australia experiences a record drought during the current or next El Niño event at any time after the creation of this market and before January 1, 2028 – 00:00 PST.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

• A “record drought” is defined as a drought event that sets a new national or major regional record for severity, duration, or extent as officially declared or measured by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) or equivalent national authority, exceeding previous historical records for the relevant metric.

• “This El Niño” refers to any El Niño event officially declared by BOM or NOAA that is ongoing at market creation or begins after market creation and ends before the resolution deadline.

• The drought must be linked to or occur during the El Niño period as confirmed by official sources.

• Only drought conditions and records established after market deployment are eligible.

• Declarations of drought, severe water restrictions, or agricultural emergency status do not qualify unless they constitute a verified new record as defined above.

If no qualifying record drought occurs by the deadline, or if no El Niño is active/declared in the period, this market will resolve to “No.”