规则

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible, verifiable evidence emerges before January 1, 2027 – 00:00 PST, proving that the Zcash Orchard circuit soundness bug — disclosed on June 5, 2026 and patched via the NU6.2 emergency upgrade on June 2, 2026 — was exploited on Zcash mainnet prior to its discovery on May 29, 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market:

A "Yes" outcome requires positive proof of exploitation, such as: onchain evidence of unauthorized value creation within the Orchard pool that predates discovery, or a verified supply discrepancy confirmed through turnstile accounting (e.g., via a future Shielded Labs network upgrade deploying a new shielded pool with turnstile accounting on exiting Orchard coins) that reveals inflation or double-spending inconsistent with legitimate activity.

Statements of "no evidence of exploitation" or the absence of proof do not resolve this market to "Yes." Due to Zcash's privacy architecture, the impossibility of cryptographically ruling out past exploitation is not itself evidence of exploitation and does not resolve this market to "Yes."

Only evidence or determinations that arise after the deployment of this market are eligible for resolution.