This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia and Ukraine formally agree to an official ceasefire at any time after the creation of this market and before January 1, 2027 – 00:00 PST.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

• A qualifying ceasefire must be officially announced or acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine and must explicitly provide for the cessation of active military operations between the parties.

• Temporary humanitarian pauses, holiday truces, localized truces, prisoner exchange pauses, informal understandings, or unilateral declarations without mutual acknowledgment do not qualify.

• The ceasefire does not need to permanently hold after announcement to qualify for a “Yes” resolution, provided a qualifying agreement was formally established before the resolution deadline.

• Preliminary negotiations, draft proposals, or announced intentions to pursue a ceasefire do not qualify unless an official ceasefire agreement or arrangement is publicly acknowledged by both sides.