This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2026 - 23:59:59 UTC (inclusive), for both OpenAI and Anthropic the single highest-capability model that is generally available to US users as of that deadline (for each company, the model the company identifies as its flagship or most capable) is "broadly available" to typical non‑US residents — i.e., a typical non‑US resident can create an account directly with the company and use that same model without being an employee, a selected government/research/enterprise partner, an invite-only user, or a waitlisted user.

Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market:

Highest-capability model generally available to US users as of the deadline” means the highest-performing model that is generally available to ordinary US users on or before December 31, 2026 - 23:59:59 UTC. A company’s official designation of a model as its flagship or most capable takes precedence. If no such designation exists, the relevant model is the company’s primary frontier AI offering as presented in its official product documentation. If that is also ambiguous, the model with the strongest aggregate performance across widely recognized public AI benchmarks (including, but not limited to, Humanity’s Last Exam, ARC-AGI, GPQA, SWE-bench, and MMLU or their successors) will be used. The intent of this definition is that no objectively more capable model may be generally available to ordinary US users while a less capable model is made available to non-US users.

• "Broadly available" means the model is available for direct account creation and use by a typical non‑US resident in at least two‑thirds (≥66.7%) of the countries listed in that company’s official supported-country list as archived at the time this market was created. The denominator for each company is the company's official supported-country list as of market creation, as determined from archived snapshots (see sources).

• Access obtained only via unofficial mirrors, VPNs, resellers, OEM partnerships, third-party integrators, enterprise-only contracts that require procurement approval, or other workarounds does NOT count.

• If a company has no model that is "generally available" to US users as of the deadline, that company does not meet the condition and the market resolves to "No."

• Only events and changes that occur after the creation/deployment of this market are eligible for resolution; availability that existed prior to market creation does not by itself make the market resolvable.

• Countries added to or removed from a company’s official supported-country list after market creation do not affect the denominator used to determine the two‑thirds threshold; the archived list at market creation is authoritative for that calculation.