规则

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a military encounter, as defined below, occurs at any time on or after Sept 22, 2026 - 00:00 ET and on or before December 31, 2026 - 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market, a "military encounter" is any incident involving the use of force (for example: missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other direct kinetic engagement) between the official armed forces of the Russian Federation and the official armed forces of a NATO member state.

The following do NOT qualify: non-violent actions such as airspace violations, warning shots, cyberattacks, intentional physical collisions or interceptions without the direct use of weaponry, and interception of missiles or loitering munitions that are targeting a third party unless there is direct use of force between Russian and NATO forces.

The following DO qualify: shooting down by direct use of force of non-munition UAVs (e.g., MQ-9, Orlan-10, Bayraktar TB2), and incidents involving private military contractors only if credible evidence shows they were operating under direct command or coordination of the relevant state's armed forces.

Only events occurring after the deployment/creation of this market are eligible for resolution; timing and attribution must be supported by a consensus of credible reporting (see sources).