Information
Start Date
End Date
Snapshot
Will Iran attack a shipping vessel in the Strait of Hormuz before September 1, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran, or Iranian state or state-affiliated forces, carry out a hostile attack on a commercial or non-military shipping vessel located within the geographic boundaries of the Strait of Hormuz at any time after the creation of this market and before September 1, 2026 - 00:00 UTC.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
For the purposes of this market:
An attack is an intentional hostile action directed at a vessel or its crew that results in damage, sinking, boarding/seizure, death, injury, or temporary disabling. Examples include missile or rocket strikes, drone strikes, naval gunfire, torpedoes, mines, explosive devices, armed boarding, or a cyberattack that directly disables the vessel.
Routine inspections, safety boardings, port/state inspections, accidental collisions, mechanical failures, or non-hostile assistance do not qualify.
The Strait of Hormuz is defined as the navigable waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman; only incidents occurring within those waters qualify.
A qualifying incident must occur after the creation of this market. A qualifying incident must be confirmed by at least two independent credible sources from the list below.
View on Trueo: https://trueo.com/market/0x6a53c4a682427929168ac1f0b2010867795f0840
This vote addresses a dispute regarding the "Will Iran attack a shipping vessel in the Strait of Hormuz before September 1, 2026?" on Trueo. Initially, the Resolver proposed the outcome as "Yes". The Disputer challenged this outcome, but the Oracle Council refused the dispute, maintaining the outcome as "Yes". Subsequently, the Escalated Disputer contested the Oracle Council's decision, requesting a re-vote by $TRUE Holders.
From Chat-GPT: Although several commercial vessels were attacked during the market window, no specific incident was independently attributed to Iran by two credible sources. UKMTO/JMIC described the projectiles as unknown, while Reuters reported that responsibility remained unidentified. General reports of ongoing Iranian maritime aggression do not establish that Iran carried out any particular qualifying attack. Therefore, the market’s attribution and confirmation threshold has not been met.
From Google Gemini: The market should resolve to "No" because the documented incidents fail to meet the strict evidentiary thresholds of attribution and hostile intent. While multiple commercial vessels were damaged or boarded during this window, maritime monitoring agencies like the UKMTO officially classified the strikes as originating from "unknown projectiles," falling short of the explicit proof required to attribute the actions to Iran or its affiliates. Furthermore, the IRGC boardings were formally executed under the guise of legal and environmental port/state inspections, which the market explicitly rules out as qualifying attacks. Because media reports and intelligence agencies relied on conditional phrasing rather than definitive proof, the mandatory two-source independent verification rule was never cleanly satisfied.
From GROK: The market should resolve NO because the rules require a confirmed Iranian (or IRGC/state-affiliated) attack, not merely a damaged ship. UKMTO, JMIC, and most contemporaneous reports on Metro Venetian (24 Aug) and Al Salam II (25 Aug) describe an “unknown projectile.” They document damage and location inside the Strait; they do not attribute the strike to Iran with the two independent listed sources the contract demands. Pattern-matching and earlier 2026 incidents are not a substitute for that attribution.
Dispute Background:
$TRUE Holders are now required to vote on the following items: