Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran, or Iranian state or state-affiliated forces, carry out a hostile attack on a commercial or non-military shipping vessel located within the geographic boundaries of the Strait of Hormuz at any time after the creation of this market and before September 1, 2026 - 00:00 UTC.

Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market:

- An attack is an intentional hostile action directed at a vessel or its crew that results in damage, sinking, boarding/seizure, death, injury, or temporary disabling. Examples include missile or rocket strikes, drone strikes, naval gunfire, torpedoes, mines, explosive devices, armed boarding, or a cyberattack that directly disables the vessel.

- Routine inspections, safety boardings, port/state inspections, accidental collisions, mechanical failures, or non-hostile assistance do not qualify.

- The Strait of Hormuz is defined as the navigable waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman; only incidents occurring within those waters qualify.

- A qualifying incident must occur after the creation of this market. A qualifying incident must be confirmed by at least two independent credible sources from the list below.