Macro
Will China's NBS report 2026 full-year real GDP growth of 4.7% or higher by Jan 30, 2027?
Macro
Will China's NBS report 2026 full-year real GDP growth of 4.7% or higher by Jan 30, 2027?
$200 / $200 Goal
1 funders
100.00% reached
Est. Prob.
Yes$70 (35 %)
No$130 (65 %)
Graduation conditions
- Total funding ≥ 200 TYD
- Single-side funding ratio (Yes and No) ≥ 0.01%
Both conditions must be met for this market to advance to Live Phase.
Status: Graduated
This market has reached its funding goal and is now live on the trading platform.
Market is Live
Initial liquidity provided. Trading is now active.
Launch Summary
Total Liquidity$200
35 %Yes Probability
65 %No Probability
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) publishes a preliminary Q4/full-year 2026 GDP release on its official website (stats.gov.cn) and that release reports the headline full-year 2026 real GDP growth rate as 4.7% or higher (the headline figure rounded to one decimal using standard arithmetic rounding), before January 30, 2027 - 00:00 UTC.
Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market: The qualifying source is the NBS preliminary Q4/full-year 2026 publication posted on stats.gov.cn (either the English press release page or the Chinese‑language release on the same domain). If the NBS reports a growth rate with more than one decimal place, round to one decimal using standard arithmetic rounding (e.g., 4.65 → 4.7). Only figures published after the creation of this market are eligible. If the NBS has not posted the preliminary Q4/full-year 2026 headline full-year growth rate on stats.gov.cn by the cutoff above, this market resolves to No. If NBS explicitly issues a correction on stats.gov.cn replacing an initial headline figure, the corrected figure on stats.gov.cn will be used for resolution.
Source
- National Bureau of Statistics of China — official releases on stats.gov.cn (English press releases: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/)
- National Bureau of Statistics of China — Chinese‑language release pages on www.stats.gov.cn
- If stats.gov.cn is inaccessible, consensus of credible reports from major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, Xinhua) reporting the NBS release (used only as a fallback)
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