Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 30-year Treasury constant-maturity yield, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates, is greater than or equal to 5.75% on the published daily value for any business day between October 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 - 00:00 PST.

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

• “Business day” means any calendar day for which the U.S. Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate (typically Monday–Friday excluding U.S. federal holidays); days with no published Treasury daily yield do not count.

• “Close” refers to the published daily 30-year constant-maturity yield value reported by the resolution source; intraday highs or other intraday feeds do not qualify.

• Only published daily values released after this market's creation are eligible for resolution.

• If the U.S. Treasury does not publish a value for a given qualifying day, the Federal Reserve Board H.15 “30-year Treasury constant maturity” published rate will be used as a fallback. If neither source publishes a value for a given day, the outcome will be determined by consensus of credible financial data providers.