Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States commences a ground invasion of Iran at any time after the creation of this market and before August 1, 2026 – 00:00 PST.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

• A “ground invasion” is defined as the deployment of U.S. military ground forces into Iranian sovereign territory for the purpose of conducting combat operations, seizing territory, occupying positions, rescue operations, or establishing military control.

• US forces stranded in Iranian territory as a result of failed aerial operations do not count towards an invasion. Rescue operations stemming from such an occurrence do count.

• Airstrikes, drone strikes, missile attacks, naval operations, cyberattacks, blockades, or support operations conducted without qualifying ground combat operations do not qualify.

• U.S. military personnel entering Iran solely for diplomatic, humanitarian, advisory, or evacuation purposes do not qualify.

• A qualifying invasion does not require a formal declaration of war.