Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli sovereign territory at any time after the creation of this market and before August 1, 2026 – 00:00 PST.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

• A qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of drones, missiles, rockets, aerial bombs, or other airborne munitions launched by Iranian military forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or other Iranian state-controlled entities that impact Israeli sovereign territory.

• Missiles or drones intercepted before impact do not qualify.

• Cyberattacks, sanctions, covert operations without attributable kinetic impact, proxy-only attacks conducted without direct Iranian state involvement, small arms fire, artillery fire, naval actions, or operations conducted solely by non-state actors do not qualify.

• Strikes launched directly by Iran but conducted through coordinated proxy infrastructure may qualify if there is broad consensus from credible reporting and/or official attribution that Iran initiated the attack.

• The strike does not need to result in casualties or significant damage to qualify.

• Only strikes occurring after market creation are eligible for resolution.