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Will Republicans control both the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?

$217.31
Aug 24, 2026 02:37 PM
0 %

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any time after the creation of this market and before January 1, 2027 - 00:00 PST, the Republican Party holds a working majority in both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate.

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

• A working majority in the U.S. House means the Republican Party is officially recorded as holding at least 218 seats on the Clerk of the House’s membership roll (including any independents who the Clerk records as part of the Republican tally).

• A working majority in the U.S. Senate means either (a) the Republican Party is officially recorded as holding at least 51 Senate seats on the Senate’s official membership roster, or (b) the Republican Party holds 50 Senate seats and the U.S. Vice President is a Republican who, as of that time, is able to cast tie-breaking votes (i.e., the Vice Presidency is held by a Republican and reflected in Senate records).

• Independents who are officially counted with the Republican conference by the Clerk of the House or by the Senate’s official membership records will be treated as Republican for this market.

• Only changes that occur after the creation of this market are eligible for determining the outcome.

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