Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia conducts a strike on Kyiv, Ukraine at any time after the creation of this market and before July 1, 2026 – 00:00 PST.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

• A qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of missiles, drones, glide bombs, aircraft-delivered munitions, or other airborne weapons launched by Russian military forces that impact within the official administrative boundaries of Kyiv.

• Missiles or drones intercepted before impact do not qualify.

• Attacks targeting the surrounding Kyiv Oblast but not impacting within Kyiv city limits do not qualify.

• Cyberattacks, sabotage, espionage operations, or non-kinetic actions do not qualify.

• The strike does not need to result in casualties or infrastructure damage to qualify.

• Only strikes occurring after market creation are eligible for resolution.