Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if China formally reinstates or begins enforcing export restrictions that prohibit or effectively block exports of gallium (wrought or unwrought) at any time after November 27, 2026 - 00:00 UTC and after the creation of this market, and before January 1, 2028 - 00:00 UTC

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

• “Reinstates or begins enforcing export restrictions” means one or more of the following actions that take effect after November 27, 2026 and are publicly confirmed: an official Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) or State Council announcement, regulation, or legal instrument that revokes or replaces the suspension and restores a ban or a presumption-of-denial on exports of gallium; a published national customs directive or licensing policy resulting in blanket denials of export licenses for gallium; or binding customs enforcement actions (e.g., seizures or formal refusals to clear gallium shipments) implemented under a new formal policy.

• Confirmation must come from at least one official Chinese government source (e.g., MOFCOM, General Administration of Customs, State Council) or from a consensus of credible international news reports citing official documents.

• “Gallium” covers elemental gallium and gallium in unwrought or wrought form used for semiconductor or industrial purposes.

• Only events occurring after the creation (deployment) of this market are eligible for resolution; prior policy or enforcement does not count.