Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) issues an official statement confirming that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) struck and caused damage to a deployed U.S. Navy warship in the Persian Gulf region at any time after the creation of this market and before December 31, 2026 - 00:00 UTC.

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

- “Struck and damaged” means an attack attributed to the IRGC that results in physical damage to a commissioned U.S. Navy warship (e.g., damage to hull, propulsion, weapons or critical systems) such that the vessel requires repair or is materially impaired; cosmetic or superficial contact that does not materially affect operations does not qualify.

- “Deployed U.S. Navy warship” means a commissioned U.S. Navy combatant or major auxiliary vessel operating under U.S. Navy command outside a shipyard or maintenance facility; training accidents, non-commissioned vessels, or damage not attributable to hostile IRGC action do not qualify.

- “Persian Gulf region” for this market includes the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the northern Gulf of Oman.

- A “consensus of major wire services” means consistent reporting that the strike and damage occurred by at least two of the following wire services: Reuters, Associated Press (AP), Agence France-Presse (AFP).

- If CENTCOM issues an official confirmation that contradicts the wire-service consensus, the CENTCOM statement will take precedence.

- Only events occurring after the creation/deployment of this market are eligible for resolution.