Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Brazil Bitcoin premium — the percentage difference between the BRL-converted-to-USD price of Bitcoin on a major Brazilian exchange (e.g. Mercado Bitcoin) and the global USD spot price of Bitcoin (as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap) — reaches or exceeds 5% for a continuous period of at least 1 hour, at any point after the creation of this market and before January 1, 2027 - 00:00 PST.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market, the premium is calculated as: ((Brazilian exchange BTC/BRL price converted to USD using the prevailing BRL/USD exchange rate) − (Global USD spot price of Bitcoin)) / (Global USD spot price of Bitcoin) × 100.

Only premium levels achieved after this market's deployment are eligible; any premium spikes prior to market creation do not count toward resolution.

If reliable premium-tracking data from Brazilian exchanges is unavailable, resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reports from reputable financial or crypto news outlets confirming the premium level.