Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any time on or before December 31, 2026, at 23:59:59 UTC, each and every one of the following ten Ozon warehouse facilities in Russia has sustained observable physical damage from a military/weapons strike:

Orenburg (SEZ "Orenburzhye")

Orientir Zapad (Istra)

Nizhny Novgorod

Vatutinki (New Moscow)

Chapayevsk

Dagestan (Tyube)

Bugry

Yaroslavl (Kryukovo)

Tyumen

Poroshkino

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market:

Historical and New Strikes: All strikes occurring at any point prior to the deadline (including those before the creation date of this market) count toward resolution.

Qualifying Strike: A qualifying strike is defined as a kinetic weapons delivery or sabotage event (e.g., UAV/drone strike, cruise/ballistic missile, rocket, artillery, or explosive device) attributable to Ukrainian military, security services, or aligned forces, causing verifiable damage to the warehouse building, infrastructure, or stored inventory. Total destruction is not required.

Attribution & Verification: Ukrainian attribution is established if claimed by Ukrainian official channels (MoD, GUR, SBU), stated by Russian local/federal authorities, or widely reported by independent media/OSINT consensus.

Verification Standard: Each strike must be verified by at least two independent credible sources (official statements from Ozon, military/government communiqués, reputable global news outlets, or geolocated OSINT/satellite imagery).

Completeness: If any of the 10 facilities has not suffered a verified qualifying strike by December 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC, the market resolves to "No". The market will resolve to "Yes" immediately if all 10 hits are verified before this date.