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Will AI data centers consume more electricity than Bitcoin mining globally before December 31, 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any time after the creation of this market and before December 31, 2027 - 00:00 UTC, the best publicly available estimates indicate that the annualized global electricity consumption attributable to AI-dedicated data centers exceeds the annualized global electricity consumption attributable to Bitcoin (BTC) mining for the same 12-month period.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
For the purposes of this market:
• "AI-dedicated data centers" means facilities or clearly identified portions of facilities whose primary operational purpose is large-scale AI model training or inference, as reported by operators or industry sources; general-purpose cloud activity is excluded unless the operator explicitly reports primary use as AI.
• "Bitcoin mining" means electricity used by the global Bitcoin proof-of-work mining network, as estimated by Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI) or equivalent credible estimates.
• Resolution will use comparable annualized estimates (TWh/year) from authoritative public sources—preferably Cambridge CBECI for Bitcoin and IEA, LBNL, or equivalent credible industry/academic reports for AI data-center consumption. If no single pair of directly comparable authoritative estimates exists, the outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible published estimates (e.g., majority of reputable sources or an agreed-upon weighted average).
• If published, directly comparable estimates for the same 12-month period show AI-dedicated data centers > Bitcoin mining, the market resolves "Yes." If they do not, the market resolves "No."
• If no credible, public, and comparable estimates exist such that the oracle cannot determine a clear outcome, this market may be Cancelled (tokens redeemable at $0.50).
Only events and estimates published after the creation of this market are eligible for resolution.
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