Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the EU–Ukraine accession process provisionally closes (i.e., the EU formally declares that at least one named negotiating chapter is ‘provisionally closed’, ‘closed’, or ‘concluded’) at any time after the creation of this market and before July 1, 2027 - 00:00 CET.

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

- “Provisionally closes” means an explicit official act or public statement by the Council of the European Union (Council decision, Council press release or Council conclusions) or by the European Commission (Commission or DG NEAR press release/communication) stating that a specific negotiating chapter has been provisionally closed or concluded.

- Official statements from Ukrainian authorities (President, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or other Ukrainian government bodies) count only if corroborated by an EU source listed above.

- Opening a chapter, commencement of negotiations, agreements in principle, or internal drafts/memoranda that are not reflected in an official Council or Commission statement do not qualify.

- Any provisional chapter closure that occurred before the creation of this market is ineligible; only events after market deployment are eligible for resolution.