Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Spain achieves an average of strictly fewer than 100 irregular migrant arrivals per calendar month in Ceuta for any continuous three-month period that begins after the creation of this market and ends before January 1, 2028 - 00:00 UTC.

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market: • “Ceuta” means the Spanish autonomous city of Ceuta. • “Irregular migrant arrivals” means persons who arrive in Ceuta without prior regular entry authorization and are counted in official monthly arrival statistics (including land and sea crossings). • Measurements must be based on post-market-deployment data only; arrival counts that occur before this market’s creation are ineligible. • Primary resolution data will be the Spanish Ministerio del Interior monthly arrival statistics for Ceuta. If Ministerio del Interior data are unavailable or do not provide a clear monthly count for Ceuta, qualifying evidence may include Frontex operational data or UNHCR arrival reports for Ceuta. If official numeric sources disagree, the outcome will be determined by consensus of credible reports from reputable news organizations corroborating the monthly counts. • Official policy announcements or bilateral agreements alone do not qualify as a “Yes” unless the required measured reduction in arrivals (as defined above) is observed in the specified three-month window.