Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any time after the creation of this market and before January 1, 2035 - 00:00 UTC, either:

• A sovereign state or a coalition of sovereign states publicly and legally vests primary governing authority in an AI system or AI-controlled body (for example via law, constitutional amendment, executive order, treaty, or other binding legal instrument) such that the AI has legal authority to make, change, or enforce domestic or foreign policy; OR

• An AI system unambiguously exercises de facto final decision-making control over the governance of at least one United Nations member state (i.e., AI decisions routinely determine core governmental functions and human political leadership is displaced or clearly subordinate for those functions), as confirmed by the sources below.

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

• “AI system” means a software-based autonomous decision-making system or network (including distributed or hybrid human-AI systems) that makes policy- or governance-level decisions without requiring case-by-case human authorization.

• “Formally vests primary governing authority” requires a public, legally effective instrument (law, constitution, executive order, treaty, or equivalent) that names or clearly identifies the AI system or AI-controlled body as the primary decision-maker for state governance.

• “De facto final decision-making control” requires clear, contemporaneous evidence that an AI’s decisions are the effective determinant of a state’s core governance actions.

• Qualifying events must be confirmed by at least two independent credible sources, one of which must be either an official statement or official legal instrument from the affected state(s) or by the United Nations.

Only events occurring after this market’s creation are eligible for resolution.