Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a formal resolution to the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine occurs at any time after the creation of this market and before January 1, 2030 - 00:00 UTC.

Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market, a "formal resolution" qualifies if either of the following occurs:

- A formal, signed bilateral or multilateral agreement is publicly announced and mutually acknowledged by both the Government of Ukraine and the Government of the Russian Federation that (a) establishes a permanent ceasefire halting offensive military operations, and (b) provides a political settlement addressing core territorial or governance disputes.

- Both governments publicly acknowledge a cessation of hostilities and large-scale military operations have ended for at least 30 consecutive days.

Announcements of intent, temporary or localized humanitarian pauses, unilateral declarations not mutually acknowledged, or events occurring prior to the creation of this market do not qualify. The qualifying outcome must be confirmed by at least two of the resolution sources listed below.