Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or against any official Iranian embassy or consulate at any time after the creation of this market and before July 1, 2026 – 00:00 PST.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

• A qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, missiles, or other airborne munitions launched by U.S. or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian territory (land or maritime) or an official Iranian embassy or consulate.

• Missiles or drones that are intercepted before impact do not qualify.

• Cyberattacks, sanctions, covert operations without attributable kinetic impact, artillery fire, naval maneuvers, proxy attacks, small arms fire, or operations conducted solely by non-state actors do not qualify.

• Defensive interception of Iranian projectiles by the United States or Israel does not qualify unless accompanied by a qualifying offensive strike as defined above.

• The strike does not need to result in casualties or significant damage to qualify.

• Only strikes occurring after market creation are eligible for resolution.