This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Strait of Hormuz returns to at least 70% of its pre-conflict commercial shipping throughput capacity at any time after the creation of this market and before August 1, 2026 – 00:00 PST.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

• “Pre-conflict commercial shipping throughput capacity” refers to the average daily commercial maritime traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz during the 30-day period immediately preceding the onset of the relevant disruption or conflict event.

• “70% capacity” means the average daily volume of commercial vessel transits, oil shipments, LNG shipments, or equivalent maritime throughput metrics has recovered to at least 70% of the pre-conflict baseline for a continuous period of 72 hours.

• The determination of shipping throughput may be based on tanker tracking data, AIS vessel transit data, official maritime authority reports, or consensus estimates from reputable shipping analytics firms.

• Temporary spikes, isolated convoy movements, military-only traffic, or brief reopenings lasting less than 72 consecutive hours do not qualify.