Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia and Ukraine formally agree to an official ceasefire at any time after the creation of this market and before January 1, 2027 – 00:00 PST.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

• A qualifying ceasefire must be officially announced or acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine and must explicitly provide for the cessation of active military operations between the parties.

• Temporary humanitarian pauses, holiday truces, localized truces, prisoner exchange pauses, informal understandings, or unilateral declarations without mutual acknowledgment do not qualify.

• The ceasefire does not need to permanently hold after announcement to qualify for a “Yes” resolution, provided a qualifying agreement was formally established before the resolution deadline.

• Preliminary negotiations, draft proposals, or announced intentions to pursue a ceasefire do not qualify unless an official ceasefire agreement or arrangement is publicly acknowledged by both sides.