Finance
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Market Data
Rules
On-chain Language: EnglishThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any time between September 22, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026. This includes any rate increase announced at the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's December 8–9, 2026 FOMC meeting.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." This market may not be resolved to "No" until after the Federal Reserve publicly releases its rate decision following its December 2026 FOMC meeting.
For the purposes of this market:
• An "increase" means an upward change to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate as announced by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Federal Reserve in an official rate statement or press release.
• Emergency rate actions announced on or after September 22, 2026 do qualify.
• Only changes occurring after this market's deployment are eligible for resolution.
• If the Federal Reserve's official communications are ambiguous, the Federal Reserve's official rate announcement/press release will be used as primary evidence; if still ambiguous, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Source
- Federal Reserve — official FOMC statements and monetary policy announcements (primary): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
- Federal Reserve press releases / FOMC statements page: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases.htm
- Consensus of credible reporting from major financial news organizations (e.g., Reuters, AP, Bloomberg)