Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran publicly and mutually announce a formal ceasefire agreement that explicitly halts offensive military operations between the two states (including state-directed proxy forces) at any time after the creation of this market and before January 1, 2027 - 00:00 UTC.

Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market, "ceasefire" is defined as a formal, mutual agreement or publicly stated, binding commitment by both governments to halt offensive military actions between them and their state-affiliated forces. Temporary, unilateral, non-binding, or purely humanitarian pauses do not qualify.

The occurrence must be confirmed by at least two of the following sources:

- Official statements from the U.S. Government (White House, Department of Defense, or State Department).

- Official statements from Iranian government authorities (President, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or comparable official body).

- Consensus reporting from major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC).