Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Bitcoin wallet identified as belonging to the "Patoshi pattern" (blocks mined using the distinct nonce/extranonce pattern attributed to Bitcoin's earliest miner, widely believed to be Satoshi Nakamoto) sends an on-chain transaction moving BTC out of the address, at any time after the creation of this market and before January 1, 2027 - 00:00 UTC.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market, only wallets that received block reward coins consistent with the Patoshi mining pattern from the 2009-2010 era qualify as "Satoshi dormant" wallets. Internal wallet consolidations, custodial re-labeling, or transfers not resulting in an actual outbound on-chain movement of funds from a Patoshi-pattern address do not qualify. Movement must be independently verifiable via public blockchain data. Only transactions occurring after this market's deployment are eligible; any prior movement does not count toward resolution.

Source:

- Public blockchain explorers (e.g., blockchain.com, mempool.space, blockchair.com)

- On-chain analytics firms tracking Patoshi-pattern addresses (e.g., Arkham Intelligence, Glassnode)

- Consensus of credible reports from reputable crypto news outlets