Crypto
Will Circle/Tether freeze funds in a permissionless protocol in 2026?
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My Disputes
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Circle (issuer of USDC) or Tether (issuer of USDT) takes an action at any time after the creation of this market and before January 1, 2027 - 00:00 PST that causes on-chain funds held within a permissionless protocol's smart contract(s) to become non-transferable, frozen, blacklisted, or otherwise rendered inaccessible to protocol users.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
For the purposes of this market:
A "permissionless protocol" is a blockchain-based smart-contract protocol that allows trustless, non-custodial participation (e.g., DEXs, lending markets, automated market makers, bridges, or composable DeFi contracts). Custodial platforms, centralized exchanges, or off-chain custodial accounts do not qualify.
A qualifying "freeze" means an on-chain change or action (for example: a token contract blacklist/freeze, a pause of transfers that affects tokens held in a permissionless protocol, or use of an admin function that prevents withdrawals/transfers from a protocol smart contract) that demonstrably renders funds held in that protocol inaccessible to the protocol's users.
Evidence for a "Yes" outcome must include verifiable on-chain data (transaction logs, contract events, or changed contract state on the relevant blockchain) showing the freeze/blacklist/pause affecting a permissionless protocol, or an explicit public statement from Circle or Tether acknowledging they froze or rendered funds in a permissionless protocol. Credible third-party reporting may be used to corroborate but not replace the on-chain evidence or official issuer statement.
Only actions occurring after market creation are eligible for resolution.
Source
- On-chain evidence via public block explorers (e.g., Etherscan, Polygonscan) showing contract events/transactions
- Consensus of credible crypto news outlets (e.g., CoinDesk, The Block, Cointelegraph)