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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran, or Iranian state or state-affiliated forces, carry out a hostile attack on a commercial or non-military shipping vessel located within the geographic boundaries of the Strait of Hormuz at any time after the creation of this market and before September 1, 2026 - 00:00 UTC. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market: - An attack is an intentional hostile action directed at a vessel or its crew that results in damage, sinking, boarding/seizure, death, injury, or temporary disabling. Examples include missile or rocket strikes, drone strikes, naval gunfire, torpedoes, mines, explosive devices, armed boarding, or a cyberattack that directly disables the vessel. - Routine inspections, safety boardings, port/state inspections, accidental collisions, mechanical failures, or non-hostile assistance do not qualify. - The Strait of Hormuz is defined as the navigable waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman; only incidents occurring within those waters qualify. - A qualifying incident must occur after the creation of this market. A qualifying incident must be confirmed by at least two independent credible sources from the list below.

- Official statements from the Islamic Republic of Iran or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - Official statements from the vessel's flag state or the vessel operator/owner - Statements or reports from naval authorities (e.g., U.S. CENTCOM, U.S. Fifth Fleet, Combined Maritime Forces, Royal Navy) - Reports from reputable international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) - AIS/ship-tracking data and IMO casualty/incident reports - Consensus of credible reports from the sources above