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Will Strategy (MSTR) be a net seller of Bitcoin for the rest of 2026?
Aug 9, 2026, 3:50 PM
$200 / $200 目标
1 资助者

已达 100.00%

预估概率
Yes$16 (8 %)
No$184 (92 %)
毕业条件
  • 总募资 ≥ 200 TYD
已达成
  • 单边募资比例(Yes 与 No)≥ 0.01%
已达成

两项条件均须满足,市场方可进入上线阶段。

状态:已毕业

此市场已达到募资目标,现已在交易平台上线。

市场已上线

初始流动性已注入,交易现已开放。

上线摘要

总流动性$200
8 %Yes 概率
92 %No 概率

规则

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy; ticker: MSTR) has a net reduction in its total Bitcoin holdings (measured in BTC) between the time this market is created and January 1, 2027 - 00:00 PST. For the purposes of this market, a "net reduction" means the company's total reported and onchain-attributable BTC balance at January 1, 2027 - 00:00 PST is strictly less than its total reported and onchain-attributable BTC balance at the exact time this market is created. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market: • "Total Bitcoin holdings" will be determined using Strategy's official disclosures and SEC filings (e.g., 8-K, 10-Q, 10-K) where available; onchain balances from wallets the company has publicly identified or that are widely and credibly attributed to Strategy; and, if official numbers are unavailable or incomplete, a consensus of credible reporting and onchain evidence. • Onchain wallet balances will count only if the wallets are publicly identified by the company or are credibly attributed to Strategy by multiple reputable sources. • Temporary transfers, custodial movements, transfers used solely for collateral, lending, custodial accounting reclassifications, or internal wallet reorganizations do not qualify as a "net reduction" unless they result in a permanent decrease in the company's total BTC holdings as measured above. • Official company disclosures and SEC filings take precedence over third-party estimates; where discrepancies exist, a consensus of credible sources will be used to determine the outcome.

来源

• Official Strategy (MicroStrategy) disclosures and SEC filings (8-K, 10-Q, 10-K) • Official Strategy press releases and investor presentations • Onchain transaction data and block explorers for wallets publicly attributed to Strategy • Consensus of credible reports from reputable news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, CoinDesk)

日期

提案结束: Aug 9, 2026, 3:50 PM
最早解决日期: Aug 9, 2026, 4:50 PM

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信息

Launchpad
提案 ID
366
建立時間

常见问题

什么是"资金"阶段?
在资金阶段,用户可以向预测市场提案贡献TYD,并表明自己看好的一方。 金额暂时由Launchpad(托管)合约持有,直至达到资金门槛。
当达到资金目标时会发生什么?
一旦总贡献金额达到门槛,系统将自动在链上部署预测市场。您资助的TYD将转换为: • 结果代币(是或否,与您看好的方向一致),以及 • LP份额,代表您在相反结果上的区间流动性头寸。 说明:您获得的结果代币对应您选择「资助」的一方,LP份额对应您希望「退出」的一方。区间流动性头寸中的代币将与TYD在起始赔率至1 TYD之间全范围配对。您可以随时提取LP份额对应的底层区间流动性。 在此阶段将扣除 ---% 的市场部署费用。
市场如何「毕业」?
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当预测市场部署时,初始池价格根据每方(是 vs 否)的总资助金额计算。 这决定了交易的起始概率。
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