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Macro
RBA raises cash rate at Nov 3, 2026 decision?
0x71f0...843c
$200 / $200 Goal
1 funders

100.00% reached

Est. Prob.
Yes$104 (52 %)
No$96 (48 %)
Graduation conditions
  • Total funding ≥ 200 TYD
Met
  • Single-side funding ratio (Yes and No) ≥ 0.01%
Met

Both conditions must be met for this market to advance to Live Phase.

Status: Graduated

This market has reached its funding goal and is now live on the trading platform.

Market is Live

Initial liquidity provided. Trading is now active.

Launch Summary

Total Liquidity$200
52 %Yes Probability
48 %No Probability

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Reserve Bank of Australia increases the official cash rate target at its board decision announced on November 3, 2026, before November 3, 2026 - 23:59 UTC. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market: an “increase” means the official cash rate target announced by the RBA is strictly higher than the previously published target of 4.60%. The qualifying announcement must be published by the Reserve Bank of Australia on its official Board decisions page or in an official RBA statement accessible to the public. A published hold, a published cut, a cancellation or postponement of the November 3, 2026 decision, or the absence of any qualifying RBA announcement by 23:59 UTC on November 3, 2026 will result in a “No” outcome. Only announcements made after this market’s deployment are eligible for resolution. All times are UTC.

Source

- Reserve Bank of Australia — Board decisions page: https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-decisions/ - Official Reserve Bank of Australia media releases and statements - Consensus of credible reports from major financial news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg) as fallback

Date

Proposal End Date:
The earliest date of resolution:

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Top 10 Funders

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Activity

Info

Launchpad
0xeD3e...1af6
Proposal ID
816
Created
—

FAQ

What happens during the "Funding" phase?
During the funding phase, users can contribute TYD to a prediction market proposal, and signal which side they favor. Funds are temporarily held in the Launchpad (escrow) contract until the funding threshold is reached.
What happens when the funding goal is reached?
Once the total amount of contributions meets the threshold, the system will automatically deploy a Prediction Market on-chain. Your funded TYD will then be converted into: • Outcome Tokens (YES or NO, corresponding to the side you favored), and • LP Shares, representing your ranged liquidity position for the opposing outcome. Note: The outcome tokens you receive represent the side which you chose to "fund," and the LP shares represent the side which you want to "divest." The tokens in the ranged liquidity position will be paired with TYD in a full range between the starting odds and 1 TYD. You may withdraw the underlying ranged liquidity for your LP shares at any time. A ---% market deployment fee will be deducted at this stage.
How does a Market “Graduate?”
Graduation occurs once a market reaches the funding threshold, and both outcomes receive a non-zero funding amount. This allows the protocol to surface high value markets, and set the initial odds for trading.
What if the market doesn't reach its goal?
If the funding goal is not reached before the deadline (End of Escrow), the market will fail to launch. You can withdraw your contribution at any time, and no fee will be charged for withdrawals after the funding period ends.
Can I withdraw my funds during the funding period?
Yes. You may withdraw your contribution at any time before the funding period ends. However: • A ---% fee applies to withdrawals made during the funding period. • Withdrawals that would leave less than 1% of the threshold in the pool are not allowed (you can withdraw a smaller amount or your full balance instead).
How is my Outcome Token price determined after launch?
When the Prediction Market is deployed, the initial pool price is calculated based on the total amount funded for each side (YES vs NO). This determines the starting probability for trading.
Who can create a market?
Anyone can create a prediction market proposal. Once a proposal meets the funding threshold, it will automatically be deployed as a tradable Prediction Market.
Where can I view my current funding positions?
You can find all the markets you've contributed to under Portfolio → Funded. It shows your current positions, contribution amounts, and allows withdrawals before deployment.
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