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Community, Iran War
Will Iran attack a shipping vessel outside the Strait of Hormuz before September?
Aug 25, 2026, 5:11 PM
ProTradeor
$200 / $200 Goal
1 funders

100.00% reached

Est. Prob.
Yes$48 (24 %)
No$152 (76 %)
Graduation conditions
  • Total funding ≥ 200 TYD
Met
  • Single-side funding ratio (Yes and No) ≥ 0.01%
Met

Both conditions must be met for this market to advance to Live Phase.

Status: Graduated

This market has reached its funding goal and is now live on the trading platform.

Market is Live

Initial liquidity provided. Trading is now active.

Launch Summary

Total Liquidity$200
24 %Yes Probability
76 %No Probability

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran (including Iranian state forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or agents/proxies acting at the state's direction) conducts or directs an attack that causes physical damage to, or loss of, a seagoing commercial shipping vessel located outside the geographic limits of the Strait of Hormuz at any time after the creation of this market and before September 1, 2026 - 00:00 UTC. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market: • "Attack" includes missile/rocket strikes, drone strikes, explosive/mine/torpedo attacks, armed boarding with use of force, or cyberattacks that directly cause physical damage or loss to a vessel. • "Seagoing commercial shipping vessel" means merchant ships (e.g., tankers, bulk carriers, container ships) and excludes warships and naval auxiliaries. • The incident must be confirmed by at least two independent credible sources (examples: official statements from government or naval authorities, UKMTO/US Fifth Fleet/USCENTCOM alerts, shipowner or insurer statements, AIS/ship-tracking data showing damage/loss, or reporting from reputable international news organizations). • Only incidents occurring after the creation of this market are eligible for resolution.

Source

- Official statements from Iranian government, IRGC, or Iranian state media - Official statements or alerts from naval/maritime authorities (e.g., US Fifth Fleet/USCENTCOM, UKMTO) - Shipowner/operator or insurer statements - AIS/ship-tracking data (e.g., MarineTraffic, VesselFinder) confirming damage or loss - Reporting from reputable international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC)

Date

Proposal End Date: Aug 25, 2026, 5:11 PM
The earliest date of resolution: Aug 25, 2026, 6:11 PM

Your Funds

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Top 10 Funders

No funders found

Activity

Info

Launchpad
0xeD3e...1af6
Proposal ID
419
Created
—

FAQ

What happens during the "Funding" phase?
During the funding phase, users can contribute TYD to a prediction market proposal, and signal which side they favor. Funds are temporarily held in the Launchpad (escrow) contract until the funding threshold is reached.
What happens when the funding goal is reached?
Once the total amount of contributions meets the threshold, the system will automatically deploy a Prediction Market on-chain. Your funded TYD will then be converted into: • Outcome Tokens (YES or NO, corresponding to the side you favored), and • LP Shares, representing your ranged liquidity position for the opposing outcome. Note: The outcome tokens you receive represent the side which you chose to "fund," and the LP shares represent the side which you want to "divest." The tokens in the ranged liquidity position will be paired with TYD in a full range between the starting odds and 1 TYD. You may withdraw the underlying ranged liquidity for your LP shares at any time. A ---% market deployment fee will be deducted at this stage.
How does a Market “Graduate?”
Graduation occurs once a market reaches the funding threshold, and both outcomes receive a non-zero funding amount. This allows the protocol to surface high value markets, and set the initial odds for trading.
What if the market doesn't reach its goal?
If the funding goal is not reached before the deadline (End of Escrow), the market will fail to launch. You can withdraw your contribution at any time, and no fee will be charged for withdrawals after the funding period ends.
Can I withdraw my funds during the funding period?
Yes. You may withdraw your contribution at any time before the funding period ends. However: • A ---% fee applies to withdrawals made during the funding period. • Withdrawals that would leave less than 1% of the threshold in the pool are not allowed (you can withdraw a smaller amount or your full balance instead).
How is my Outcome Token price determined after launch?
When the Prediction Market is deployed, the initial pool price is calculated based on the total amount funded for each side (YES vs NO). This determines the starting probability for trading.
Who can create a market?
Anyone can create a prediction market proposal. Once a proposal meets the funding threshold, it will automatically be deployed as a tradable Prediction Market.
Where can I view my current funding positions?
You can find all the markets you've contributed to under Portfolio → Funded. It shows your current positions, contribution amounts, and allows withdrawals before deployment.
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