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OracleTYD
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Community, Iran War
Will Iran attack a shipping vessel in the Strait of Hormuz before September 1, 2026?
Aug 25, 2026, 5:08 PM
ProTradeor
$200 / $200 Goal
1 funders

100.00% reached

Est. Prob.
Yes$122 (61 %)
No$78 (39 %)
Graduation conditions
  • Total funding ≥ 200 TYD
Met
  • Single-side funding ratio (Yes and No) ≥ 0.01%
Met

Both conditions must be met for this market to advance to Live Phase.

Status: Graduated

This market has reached its funding goal and is now live on the trading platform.

Market is Live

Initial liquidity provided. Trading is now active.

Launch Summary

Total Liquidity$200
61 %Yes Probability
39 %No Probability

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran, or Iranian state or state-affiliated forces, carry out a hostile attack on a commercial or non-military shipping vessel located within the geographic boundaries of the Strait of Hormuz at any time after the creation of this market and before September 1, 2026 - 00:00 UTC. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market: - An attack is an intentional hostile action directed at a vessel or its crew that results in damage, sinking, boarding/seizure, death, injury, or temporary disabling. Examples include missile or rocket strikes, drone strikes, naval gunfire, torpedoes, mines, explosive devices, armed boarding, or a cyberattack that directly disables the vessel. - Routine inspections, safety boardings, port/state inspections, accidental collisions, mechanical failures, or non-hostile assistance do not qualify. - The Strait of Hormuz is defined as the navigable waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman; only incidents occurring within those waters qualify. - A qualifying incident must occur after the creation of this market. A qualifying incident must be confirmed by at least two independent credible sources from the list below.

Source

- Official statements from the Islamic Republic of Iran or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - Official statements from the vessel's flag state or the vessel operator/owner - Statements or reports from naval authorities (e.g., U.S. CENTCOM, U.S. Fifth Fleet, Combined Maritime Forces, Royal Navy) - Reports from reputable international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) - AIS/ship-tracking data and IMO casualty/incident reports - Consensus of credible reports from the sources above

Date

Proposal End Date: Aug 25, 2026, 5:08 PM
The earliest date of resolution: Aug 25, 2026, 6:08 PM

Your Funds

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Top 10 Funders

No funders found

Activity

Info

Launchpad
0xeD3e...1af6
Proposal ID
418
Created
—

FAQ

What happens during the "Funding" phase?
During the funding phase, users can contribute TYD to a prediction market proposal, and signal which side they favor. Funds are temporarily held in the Launchpad (escrow) contract until the funding threshold is reached.
What happens when the funding goal is reached?
Once the total amount of contributions meets the threshold, the system will automatically deploy a Prediction Market on-chain. Your funded TYD will then be converted into: • Outcome Tokens (YES or NO, corresponding to the side you favored), and • LP Shares, representing your ranged liquidity position for the opposing outcome. Note: The outcome tokens you receive represent the side which you chose to "fund," and the LP shares represent the side which you want to "divest." The tokens in the ranged liquidity position will be paired with TYD in a full range between the starting odds and 1 TYD. You may withdraw the underlying ranged liquidity for your LP shares at any time. A ---% market deployment fee will be deducted at this stage.
How does a Market “Graduate?”
Graduation occurs once a market reaches the funding threshold, and both outcomes receive a non-zero funding amount. This allows the protocol to surface high value markets, and set the initial odds for trading.
What if the market doesn't reach its goal?
If the funding goal is not reached before the deadline (End of Escrow), the market will fail to launch. You can withdraw your contribution at any time, and no fee will be charged for withdrawals after the funding period ends.
Can I withdraw my funds during the funding period?
Yes. You may withdraw your contribution at any time before the funding period ends. However: • A ---% fee applies to withdrawals made during the funding period. • Withdrawals that would leave less than 1% of the threshold in the pool are not allowed (you can withdraw a smaller amount or your full balance instead).
How is my Outcome Token price determined after launch?
When the Prediction Market is deployed, the initial pool price is calculated based on the total amount funded for each side (YES vs NO). This determines the starting probability for trading.
Who can create a market?
Anyone can create a prediction market proposal. Once a proposal meets the funding threshold, it will automatically be deployed as a tradable Prediction Market.
Where can I view my current funding positions?
You can find all the markets you've contributed to under Portfolio → Funded. It shows your current positions, contribution amounts, and allows withdrawals before deployment.
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