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Community, War
Will the United States and Iran reach a final nuclear agreement before 2027?
Jul 12, 2026, 4:00 AM
0x76cc...1cb0
$200 / $200 Goal
1 funders

100.00% reached

Est. Prob.
Yes$62 (31 %)
No$138 (69 %)
Graduation conditions
  • Total funding ≥ 200 TYD
Met
  • Single-side funding ratio (Yes and No) ≥ 0.01%
Met

Both conditions must be met for this market to advance to Live Phase.

Status: Graduated

This market has reached its funding goal and is now live on the trading platform.

Market is Live

Initial liquidity provided. Trading is now active.

Launch Summary

Total Liquidity$200
31 %Yes Probability
69 %No Probability

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States of America and Iran reach and publicly announce a final, legally binding nuclear agreement that is signed, exchanged, or formally adopted by both governments at any time after the creation of this market and before January 1, 2027 - 00:00 PST. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market: a “final, legally binding nuclear agreement” must be a written agreement (bilateral or multilateral) that includes specific, binding provisions addressing Iran’s nuclear program (for example: limits, inspection/verification regimes, or sanctions-relief terms) and is signed, exchanged, or officially ratified by representatives of both the United States and Iran. Announcements of intent, provisional frameworks, memoranda of understanding, press statements without a signed/adopted agreement, or agreements acknowledged by only one party do not qualify. Only agreements first signed or formally adopted after this market’s creation are eligible for resolution.

Source

Official statements or published texts from the U.S. Government (White House, U.S. Department of State) Official statements or published texts from the Government of Iran (President’s office, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or equivalent official body) Official published agreement text (signed treaty/instrument or jointly published signed agreement) Consensus of credible international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) for corroboration

Date

Proposal End Date: Jul 12, 2026, 4:00 AM
The earliest date of resolution: Jul 12, 2026, 5:00 AM

Your Funds

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Top 10 Funders

No funders found

Activity

Info

Launchpad
0xeD3e...1af6
Proposal ID
162
Created
—

FAQ

What happens during the "Funding" phase?
During the funding phase, users can contribute TYD to a prediction market proposal, and signal which side they favor. Funds are temporarily held in the Launchpad (escrow) contract until the funding threshold is reached.
What happens when the funding goal is reached?
Once the total amount of contributions meets the threshold, the system will automatically deploy a Prediction Market on-chain. Your funded TYD will then be converted into: • Outcome Tokens (YES or NO, corresponding to the side you favored), and • LP Shares, representing your ranged liquidity position for the opposing outcome. Note: The outcome tokens you receive represent the side which you chose to "fund," and the LP shares represent the side which you want to "divest." The tokens in the ranged liquidity position will be paired with TYD in a full range between the starting odds and 1 TYD. You may withdraw the underlying ranged liquidity for your LP shares at any time. A ---% market deployment fee will be deducted at this stage.
How does a Market “Graduate?”
Graduation occurs once a market reaches the funding threshold, and both outcomes receive a non-zero funding amount. This allows the protocol to surface high value markets, and set the initial odds for trading.
What if the market doesn't reach its goal?
If the funding goal is not reached before the deadline (End of Escrow), the market will fail to launch. You can withdraw your contribution at any time, and no fee will be charged for withdrawals after the funding period ends.
Can I withdraw my funds during the funding period?
Yes. You may withdraw your contribution at any time before the funding period ends. However: • A ---% fee applies to withdrawals made during the funding period. • Withdrawals that would leave less than 1% of the threshold in the pool are not allowed (you can withdraw a smaller amount or your full balance instead).
How is my Outcome Token price determined after launch?
When the Prediction Market is deployed, the initial pool price is calculated based on the total amount funded for each side (YES vs NO). This determines the starting probability for trading.
Who can create a market?
Anyone can create a prediction market proposal. Once a proposal meets the funding threshold, it will automatically be deployed as a tradable Prediction Market.
Where can I view my current funding positions?
You can find all the markets you've contributed to under Portfolio → Funded. It shows your current positions, contribution amounts, and allows withdrawals before deployment.
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